Donald Trump is losing it in a big way, and the polls are widening. Still, I say don’t get overconfident. This may yet be close—close enough that Trump can challenge the results in some key states and try to steal it.
And if Trump and the Republicans can get away with it, they can produce some outlandish scenarios. Maybe one in which a minority of House members decides Trump won re-election. Maybe one in which there is no president next Jan. 20. Maybe even one in which Mike Pence just decides, against the will of Congress, that he and Trump won—and there might be nothing anyone can do about it.
The bottom-line question at hand is this: What happens if neither Trump nor Joe Biden gets 270 electoral votes, i.e., an Electoral College majority? Barton Gelman did go into this in his acclaimed Atlantic piece from late September, but it was kind of scrunched in toward the end of a several thousand-word article, so I think it needs further amplification. And I have a couple points to add that Gelman didn’t get to.
Life or Death of Democracy