Latinos in Florida would vote for Trump if the election were held today, poll shows
With the presidential election just weeks away, Telemundo Station Group and Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. surveyed the state of Florida to find out what decision Latino voters would make.
The poll included 625 Hispanic voters registered in Florida, who were interviewed by phone and indicated that they were likely to vote in the November general election. The interviewees were randomly selected from a Florida voter registration list that included landline and cellphone numbers.
The margin of error is no more than 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95% probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if all Hispanic voters in Florida were surveyed.
This survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida, from September 23rd to 25th of 2024.
- When asked, if the presidential election were held today, for whom they would vote, Trump leads Harris in Florida 48% to 41% according to the poll.
- As for the most influential issue when deciding to vote, the economy ranked first.
- When asked “which presidential candidate do you trust more to handle abortion issues – Kamala Harris, the Democrat, or Donald Trump, the Republican?” the result was a 47% tie among respondents.
Question
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, for which of the following presidential or vice presidential candidacies would you vote?
- The Democratic Party ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
- The Republican Party ticket of Donald Trump and JD Vance.
- One of the other party nominations
| Harris | Trump | Other | Has not been decided | |
| State | 41% | 48% | 4% | 7% |
| Region | Harris | Trump | Other | Has not been decided |
| Central Florida | 45% | 39% | 5% | 11% |
| Tampa Bay | 48% | 43% | 2% | 7% |
| Southeast Florida | 38% | 53% | 5% | 4% |
| Gender | Harris | Trump | Other | Has not been decided |
| Male | 28% | 60% | 6% | 6% |
| Female | 53% | 37% | 3% | 7% |
| Age | Harris | Trump | Other | Has not been decided |
| Under 50 | 44% | 43% | 6% | 7% |
| Over 50 | 37% | 53% | 3% | 7% |
| Hispanic origin | Harris | Trump | Other | Has not been decided |
| Cuban | 28% | 61% | 4% | 7% |
| Puerto Rican | 58% | 33% | 2% | 7% |
| Other | 41% | 47% | 6% | 6% |
| Politic party | Harris | Trump | Other | Has not been decided |
| Democrat | 85% | 6% | 2% | 7% |
| Republican | 1% | 91% | 6% | 2% |
| Independent | 37% | 45% | 5% | 23% |
Question
Which of the following issues is the most influential in deciding your vote for president?
| | State | Harris Voters | Trump Voters |
| Economy |
41% | 32% | 48% |
| Protection of American democracy | 13% | 19% | 10% |
| Immigration | 10% | 9% | 11% |
| Abortion | 9% | 14% | 5% |
| Foreign policy and wars | 7% | 3% | 10% |
| Medical attention | 5% | 9% | 2% |
| Climate change | 4% | 2% | 6% |
| Law, order and crime | 4% | 2% | 6% |
| Other | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Not sure | 2% | 3% | 2% |
Humanitarian Parole
Interviewees were also asked about a major issue for the state these days: humanitarian parole for Cubans, Venezuelans, Nicaraguans and Haitians. The majority, 65%, support the program, which received the most support among Democrats surveyed, at 78%.
Question
Do you support or oppose the Humanitarian Permit program for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans, under which citizens of these four countries and their immediate families can obtain permission to enter the U.S. for up to two years if a person in the U.S. agrees to support them financially?
| | Support | Oppose | Undecided |
| State | 65% | 29% | 6% |
| Region | Support | Oppose | Undecided |
| Central Florida | 65% | 28% | 7% |
| Tampa Bay | 74% | 22% | 4% |
| Southeast Florida | 62% | 30% | 8% |
| Gender | Support | Oppose | Undecided |
| Male | 63% | 29% | 8% |
| Female | 65% | 29% | 6% |
| Age | Support | Oppose | Undecided |
| Under 50 | 63% | 32% | 5% |
| Over 50 | 65% | 27% | 8% |
| Hispanic origin | Support | Oppse | Undecided |
| Cuban | 63% | 31% | 6% |
| Puerto Rican | 68% | 24% | 8% |
| Other | 63% | 31% | 6% |
| Party | Support | Oppose | Undecided |
| Democratic | 78% | 17% | 5% |
| Republican | 53% | 42% | 5% |
| Independent | 62% | 28% | 10%% |
Venezuela
When asked whether they favor or oppose increased sanctions against the Venezuelan government, 73% support sanctions, with Republicans showing the highest support at 83%.
Question
Do you favor or oppose increased sanctions against the government of Venezuela?
| Support | Oppose | Undecided | |
| State | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Region | Support | Oppose | Undecided |
| Central Florida | 71% | 11% | 18% |
| Tampa Bay | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| Southeast Florida | 76% | 16% | 8% |
Cuba
Question
Do you favor or oppose lifting the trade embargo on Cuba?
48% of respondents in the state were opposed — mostly women, located in Central Florida and Republicans.
Puerto Rico
Question
Do you favor or oppose making Puerto Rico the 51st state?
68%, women, Democrats, and located in Tampa Bay, expressed support.
Immigration
Interviewees also answered the following question: How serious do you think the illegal immigration problem is for the country right now? Is it very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not serious at all?
58%, especially Cuban men in Southeast Florida, over 50 years old, Republicans, responded that it is very serious.
Continuing with the immigration issue, to the question, whether you think the borders are secure or not, 72 of the respondents answered that they are not secure, with 92% being Republicans.
When asked if they support or oppose immigration reform that offers a path to citizenship, 70%, mostly women, over 50, of Puerto Rican origin, and Democrats, support reform.
When asked: Which presidential candidate do you trust more to handle abortion issues: Kamala Harris, or Donald Trump?, some 55% of respondents said they trust Trump more, mostly in Southeast Florida, male, Cuban, and Republican.
Abortion
Amendment 4 on the Florida ballot is titled the Abortion Rights Initiative. If passed, it would amend the state constitution to provide that no law shall prohibit, criminalize, delay or restrict abortion prior to viability. It also provides for abortion when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s health care provider.
According to the poll, 55% of interviewees in the state, mostly Democrats, would support the Abortion Rights initiative.
Here are the counties were the survey was conducted:
North Florida
Voters were interviewed in Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Liberty, Walton, Washington, Washington, Holmes, Jackson, Gadsden, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau, Putnam, St. Johns, Flagler, Union, Alachua, Dixie, Gilchrist and Levy counties.
Central Florida
Voters were interviewed in Brevard, Lake, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Sumter, Volusia, Volusia and Indian River counties.
Tampa Bay
Voters were interviewed in Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Citrus, Manatee and Sarasota counties.
Southwest Florida
Voters were interviewed in DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties.
Southeast Florida
Voters were interviewed in Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties.
Demographics
Democratic Party: 216 (35%)
Republican Party: 220 (35%)
Independent/ other: 189 (30%)
Age
18-34: 109 (17%)
35-49: 194 (31%)
50-64: 154 (25%)
65+: 163 (26%)
Hispanic origin
Mexican American: 24 (4%)
Puerto Rican: 139 (22%)
Cuban American: 205 (33%)
Venezuelan: 36 (6%)
Colombian: 66 (11%)
Central American: 52 (8%)
Other: 95 (15%)
Birth Place
United States: 371 (59%)
Other: 254 (41%)
Gender:
Men: 297 (48%)
Women: 325 (52%)
Other: 1
Region
North Florida: 35 (5%)
Central Florida: 130 (21%)
Tampa Bay: 100 (16%)
Southwest Florida: 30 (5%)
Southeast Florida: 330 (53%)