There’s a Reason the World Is a Mess, and It’s Not Trump

The world is a mess.

As President Trump upends global trade through a punitive suite of tariffs and redraws America’s alliances, world leaders are scrambling to respond. They are badly placed to deal with such disruption: Across the world, governments have been losing elections — or barely holding on — in the face of rising discontent. From the United States to Uruguay, Britain to India, an anti-incumbent wave swept through democracies in 2024. But not only democracies are in crisis. China, too, is grappling with social unrest and economic instability. Strife, these days, is global.

There are many explanations for this sorry state of affairs. Some see rapid social change, especially around migration and gender identity, fueling a cultural backlash. Others argue that elites flubbed their pandemic responses or have grown detached from their populations, driving a surge in anti-establishment sentiment and support for strongmen. Another argument holds that algorithm-driven social media has made it easier for misinformation and conspiracy theories to spread, giving rise to greater volatility.

There’s something to each of these theories, to be sure. But there is a deeper force underlying today’s disarray: economic stagnation. The world is experiencing a long-term slowdown in growth rates that began in the 1970s, worsened after the 2008 global financial crisis and shows no sign of improving. Stuck with low growth, waning productivity and an aging work force, the world economy is in a rut. This shared economic predicament lies behind the political and social conflicts the world over.

The state of the Group of 20, a collection of the globe’s biggest economies, tells us a lot about the world’s economic health. The data is damning. Eight of them have grown by less than 10 percent since 2007, adjusted for inflation. An additional four are just above that bar. Some, such as India, Indonesia and Turkey, have maintained stronger growth rates, but most are experiencing prolonged economic malaise.

In the past, G20 economies regularly grew 2 to 3 percent per year, doubling incomes every 25 to 35 years. Today, many growth rates are 0.5 to 1 percent, meaning incomes now take 70 to 100 years to double — too slow for people to feel progress in their lifetimes. The significance of that change can’t be overstated. Stagnation does not have to be absolute to collapse expectations: When people no longer assume their or their children’s living standards will improve, trust in institutions erodes and discontent rises.