On December 18, 2019, the House of Representatives made history in the American presidency by impeaching U.S. President Donald Trump. The 45th U.S. president was impeached for his controversial Ukraine dealings, on the basis of two articles – obstruction of Congress and abuse of power. Now, the impeachment is awaiting being sent to the Senate to decide whether he will be removed from office or will be acquitted. The question that comes to mind is; will Trump be removed from office, and if he’s removed from office, can he win reelection?
First, from my research, the Senate is made up of 100 senators who are mostly Republican, 53 in total, and they are quite influential. In fact, some of the senators are demanding for a quick trial process to get things over using statements such as, “If the Senate blesses this historically low bar, we will invite the impeachment of every future president, ” – Senator McConnell
On the other hand, Congress House Speaker Pelosi has yet to transmit the two articles to the republican-dominated Senate. Her reason for the delay is to wait until the terms of the trial are well defined by the Senate.
Even if Nancy Pelosi should refer the articles to the Senate today, the trial is more likely to favor Trump because as we all know, he is highly favored by Republicans. Why is that? Well, Trump is at the peak position for Republicans, and re-election campaigns have started already. A lot of the Republican Senators are seeking re-election and this means they need Trump to be in power so as to increase their chances of winning. So, there’s really nothing to gain as a Republican Senator to vote against Trump at the trial. In fact, you're more likely to lose your Trump approval along with the approval of the other powerful Republicans than help remove Trump from office.
Not to mention the Senate has never supported Congress on past impeachments (two) that came to trial. Both Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were acquitted at their impeachment trials. Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton. Both remained in office.
While the impeachment may seem like a walk in the park for Trump given past precedence, some people have argued the trial could be unpredictable. Nancy Pelosi is doing everything she can to get a fair trial from the Senate. We’ve also seen in mainstream media that up to 10 Republican Senators are not strong on the decision to acquit Trump by all means.
Being impeached doesn’t automatically disqualify you from running for election. If it finally comes down to re-election, will Trump win? The answer is almost certainly yes. Right now, Trump and his advocates have built on the propaganda that makes it look like the impeachment was a coup. The impeachment has been construed as an attack on a president who has been achieving numerous social-economic results.
If you doubt the support that both nationalists and Republicans have for Trump, think again. His 2016 win was not by luck. In fact, there are already fundraisers set up for his reelection campaign and people are going all out, breaking historical fund raising records on the Republican side.