Voters disapprove of Trump in four key elections: NBC News Exit Poll
In the first major elections of President Donald Trump’s second term, voters in Virginia, New Jersey, California and New York City are expressing broad dissatisfaction with Trump — and with both political parties, according to early results from the NBC News Exit Poll.
Most voters in those elections are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country today, and they continue to express concern about financial issues and the economy.
The governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as a closely watched mayoral election in New York City and the redistricting ballot measure in California, highlight the first big Election Day of Trump’s second term.
The results of Tuesday night’s elections will offer an early, though limited, window into how voters feel about his efforts to reshape Washington and the country, providing clues for candidates on both sides ahead of pivotal midterm elections next year.
How is Trump handling his second term in office?
Trump’s overall job approval is underwater among voters casting ballots for governor in New Jersey and Virginia — two states that have voted against Trump each time he has run for president. Majorities of voters who turned out for the 2025 contests disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president: 55% in New Jersey, 56% in Virginia.
In the New York mayoral race, just 29% of voters approve of Trump, according to the exit poll, as do 36% in California. There, the Proposition 50 ballot measure will decide whether the state will change its congressional map in response to Republican-led redistricting pushed by Trump in Texas and other states.
How do voters see the Democratic and Republican Parties?
Beyond views of the president, neither the Republican nor the Democratic Party is seen in particularly positive terms among voters this year.
In Virginia, New Jersey, and California, more voters expressed unfavorable than favorable views of the Democratic Party. Views of the Republican Party are not quite as negative, but still, the party was not seen in favorable terms by a majority in any state surveyed.
A grim national outlook
Voters picking new governors in New Jersey and Virginia also expressed concern about the way things are going in the country these days.
In New Jersey, 65% said they are angry or dissatisfied with the direction of the country, and only 33% said they are satisfied or enthusiastic.
In Virginia, 63% said they are angry or dissatisfied about the direction of the country, compared with just 35% who had positive views of the country.
Economic concerns and the cost of living
Voters in each of the states surveyed over the last several weeks said economic issues — or the cost of living — were the most important issues facing their states. In Virginia and California, the economy topped the list of voters’ concerns. And in New York City, 56% of voters said the cost of living was the most important issue. In New Jersey, taxes and the economy both ranked high on voters’ list of concerns.
Financial worries came through as voters described their own families’ financial situations. In each state surveyed, most voters said they were either “holding steady” or actively falling behind financially. Far smaller shares in any state or locality said they were “getting ahead.”
At an active polling place in the Dumfries area, voters told News4’s Julie Carey why they cast ballots for Winsome Earle-Sears or Abigail Spanberger for governor.
In several states, voters point to specific financial pains
In New Jersey, a majority of voters said property taxes and electricity costs were “major” problems in their state. Overall, 60% said the state’s economy is not so good or poor. Only 38% said it was good or excellent.
In Virginia, where the government shutdown and federal government cuts affected many families this year, 6 in 10 said federal government cuts this year affected their families’ finances a lot (20%) or a little (39%).
A large majority of New York City voters said the cost of living was the most important issue facing the city: 72% said the cost of housing was a major problem, and 65% said the city’s economy was not so good or poor.
Trump on immigration
Trump said he won in 2024 because of the border and grocery prices. But voters today are divided over his actions on immigration.
A slim majority of voters in New Jersey and Virginia said the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far, while far smaller shares say they have been about right or have not gone far enough.
Still, many voters are divided over how their states’ governments should cooperate with the federal government on immigration. In New Jersey, voters were likelier to say the next governor should not cooperate with Trump — though those views were divided by candidate preference.
In New York City, 61% said the next mayor should not cooperate with Trump on immigration enforcement.
In California, 59% said Gov. Gavin Newsom, the Democrat leading the Proposition 50 fight, should not cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement.
What’s Prop 50 all about? Video broadcast Tuesday Nov. 4, 2025 on Today in LA.
In Virginia
Democrat Abigail Spanberger bested Republican Winsome Earle-Sears for the governorship, NBC News projects, becoming Virginia’s first female governor. Earle-Sears, the lieutenant governor, faced difficult political headwinds — including cuts to the federal government, a lingering government shutdown and an uncertain economic future in the state.
Many voters tied the cuts directly to Trump — whose approval is underwater in Virginia. Virginia voters also did not view Earle-Sears as favorably as her predecessor.
Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is term-limited, was viewed positively among Virginia voters in the exit poll: 55% approve of the job he is doing as governor. But Earle-Sears’ approval is underwater in comparison (46% have favorable views, 51% have unfavorable views).
Ultimately, Spanberger won over voters who expressed concerns about their personal financial wellbeing — one of the most important issues in the race.
Spanberger also won over groups that are typically less locked-in. Moderates, independent voters and those who have unfavorable views of both major parties all broke for Spanberger over Earle-Sears. Among those who did not vote in 2024, Spanberger beat Earle-Sears by nearly double digits.
Democrat Abigail Spanberger has defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears to flip control of the Virginia governorship, NBC News projects, setting her up to become the first woman to lead the state.
In New Jersey
Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeated Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey governor’s race, NBC News projected, winning a large share of those who approve of current Gov. Phil Murphy (91%) and those who said their vote today was to oppose Trump (97%), according to NBC News exit polling.
New Jersey voters ranked the economy as one of the most important issues, and Sherill won 6 in 10 of those voters. They also expressed deep dissatisfaction with the direction of the country — 64% said they are dissatisfied or angry and among them three quarters voted for Sherrill.
Sherrill won majorities of voters from traditional Democratic voting blocs: voters under 30 (66%), those with incomes under $50,000 (67%), women (59%) and college graduates (59%).
She was also propelled to victory by first-time voters (66%), Latinos (64%) and independents (52%).
Democrat Mikie Sherrill will be the next governor of the Garden State, NBC News has projected.
The NBC News Exit Poll is conducted by SSRS, an independent research company, on behalf of ABC, The Associated Press, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and NBC. The networks together prepare the questionnaire. More information about SSRS can be obtained by visiting www.ssrs.com.
The 2025 poll, conducted from Oct. 22 -Nov. 4, includes representative samples of registered voters in California (n=~4,000), New Jersey (n=~4,000), New York City (n=~3,700), and Virginia (n=~4,000). The Voter Poll combines data collected from verified registered voters online and by telephone, with data collected in-person from Election Day voters at 30 precincts per state/city, excluding California. Respondents can complete the poll in English or Spanish. The overall margin of sampling error for voters, accounting for design effects, is expected to be approximately plus or minus 2 percentage points in California, 2.1 percentage points in New Jersey, 2.2 percentage points in New York City, and 2.1 percentage points in Virginia.